This is a from-scratch model build, and not really a deep valuation of Tesla itself. Use the very one I reference in this post. Copyright 2006-2022 Tesla Motors Club LLC. Create your Watchlist to save your favorite quotes on Nasdaq.com. Give it a read if youd like to better understand the benefits and detriments of borrowing for companies. Sources: FactSet, Dow Jones, Bonds: Bond quotes are updated in real-time. Fundamental data provided by Zacks and Morningstar. Some of these signals, such as Fibonacci Retracements, have a fixed bullish or bearish interpretation. In contrast, a larger spread suggests lower liquidity, as there are fewer investors willing to negotiate. A lot of SG&A costs are going to be fixed in nature. Combined state and local rates vary greatly. Tesla's cash on hand decreased almost $2 billion from 2020 to 2021, although the company's total current assets slightly increased. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice. As usual, looking at extreme examples can help with understanding. TSLA share price has been in a positive cycle for the past year. Thebid-ask spreadcan indicate a stocks liquidity, which is how easy it is to buy and sell in the marketplace. Stock Screener. Download Excel Template Try Smartsheet Template . For each period, the "Percent From Last" column shows you where the current price is in relationship to the High price for that period. Fundamental company data and analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Net income and EPS only calculate as far out as you forecast revenue and expenses. Per Share Data Tesla Inc. All values updated annually at fiscal year end Ratios & Margins Tesla Inc. All values updated annually at fiscal year end Valuation. Today, in 2020, Tesla has achieved all of the milestones it set in its 2006 Master Plan: Build sports car (Tesla Roadster) Use that money to build an affordable car (Tesla Model S) Use that money to build an even more affordable car (Tesla Model 3) While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options (Solar Roof) Do you know how to automate the retrieval of detailed financial statement data? Keep in mind that part of the COR amounts is going to be made up of fixed costs. In addition, you can adjust the price history for dividends (check the Dividend Adjust box). In my view, the biggest learning of this spreadsheet is that the next 10 years don't matter for Tesla valuation. Specifically, Gross margin %, Operating margin %, Tax rate %, and Net margin %. F2 refers to the Discount rate, which youll enter later (F2). Which is what were after. TSLA U.S.: Nasdaq Tesla Inc. Watch list Create TSLA Alert After Hours Last Updated: Apr 28, 2023 7:59 p.m. EDT Delayed quote $ 164.25 -0.06 -0.04% After Hours Volume: 1.83M Advanced Charting. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements. When negative, the current price is that much lower than the highest price reported for the period. *Data is provided by Barchart.com. But, we also want to be able to check our work. In the spirit of not overthinking things, well use something called a terminal value. Every companys financial statements will be displayed in the same generic manner. Yearly information can be found in the 10-K. Information for the last quarter of the year is a bit trickier. Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice. Market Cap (Capitalization) is a measure of the estimated value of the common equity securities of the company or their equivalent. If we flip that example on its head we have a company with $0 Cash and $1 billion in Debt. SEC Filings | Tesla Investor Relations SEC Filings Filters Annual & Quarterly Reports Apply Filter Clear Selections Apr 24, 2023 PX14A6N PX14A6N Acc-no: 0001377739-23-000023 HTML PDF Apr 21, 2023 10-Q Quarterly report which provides a continuing view of a company's financial position Acc-no: 0000950170-23-013890 HTML PDF Apr 19, 2023 8-K In my spreadsheet, this is row 55 + row 56 + row 68 row 77 row 78 row 80. You could put segment revenues, active user amounts, or anything else that can help you forecast overall sales. Finvizs website has a highly regarded stock screener. Because who knows who will be President in 2020, 2024, and 2028? The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75 th and 25 th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share, as shown below. Detailed Stock Valuation Spreadsheet With Walk-through. Not necessarily a home run stock pick. volume: The current trading volume. No significant news for TSLA in the past two years. Dividend Payout Ratio Definition, Formula, and Calculation, Enterprise Value (EV) Formula and What It Means, Capitalization: What It Means in Accounting and Finance, Capital Stock: Definition, Example, Preferred vs. Common Stock, Capital Investment: Types, Example, and How It Works, Return on Equity (ROE) Calculation and What It Means. The Last Price will update only when the page is refreshed. Keep an eye on the Operating margin % for the years youre forecasting and the years past. That and the performance model. All youll do is take the Net income from the last year of your forecast and do one of three things: If you think the company will move past its maturity at the end of the forecast you can choose to have Net income decrease by 3% for every year thereafter. Stock Movers: Gainers . Additionally, for yearly results, I went back to 2016. Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads. Corporate Actions are available only for U.S. and Canadian equities. It does not include securities convertible into the common equity securities. States may or may not charge income tax. The company may conduct business internationally. The culmination of all this effort was a current valuation of Tesla stock at $152.26. SPY vs QQQ: Which ETF is the Better Investment for Your Portfolio? Revenue is the biggest determinant of Net income. XBRL or something similar? With a Total value amount, anyhow. Add Model. Do you value your experience at TMC? He teaches accounting, helping promote financial education and awareness. Tesla, Inc. stock trend is positive . Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Stock Quotes - Nasdaq offers stock quotes & market activity data for US and global markets. Type a symbol or company name. Site members can also display the page using Custom Views. Thought worth mentioning. You can find a more in-depth analysis of the topics there. Automotive Sales Segment 4. Or, maybe you think that theyll enter into maturity right around the time your forecast ends. Was going to do it anyway, might as well let people watch! Read More. This is referred to as the terminal value. These earnings can be flat, increase by 1-2% to reflect inflation, or decline by a few percent to reflect the companys maturity and decline. Between 2020 and 2021, Tesla adopted new accounting treatment for its additional paid-in capital. In 2021, Tesla was profitable, beat EPS targets each quarter, and has a much healthier debt-to-equity ratio. The Trader's Cheat Sheet is updated for the next market session upon receiving a settlement or end of day record for the current market session. Do you have any tips for forecasting the income statement into the future? Though the company's net cash on hand has decreased, the company generated $2.61 billion of operating income during the fourth quarter of 2021. Wish more people who I see posting on the forum in different areas about their invites would participate in the spreadsheet. This is the present value of all future cash flows, with the effects of excess Cash or Debt factored in. As of the end of 2018, Tesla's debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio was 3.71. TSLA - Tesla Stock Trader's Cheat Sheet - Barchart.com Tesla Inc (TSLA) Alerts Watch Help Go To: Using The Trader's Cheat Sheet To Identify Support & Resistance: Watch the Webinar Projection Effective Date: Apr 24th, 2023 Legend: Blue areas below the Last Price will tend to provide support to limit the downward move. Its really up to you. However, since 1800, Ford (F) is the only auto manufacturer in the United States that has gone bankrupt. Either with XBRL or via some other means? It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. Ive worked in corporate finance for almost fifteen years. Not only that, youll probably want to reap the rewards of this well-researched investment well before you die. Stick with scenarios that you can back up with solid reasoning. The foundation is laid, but now comes the time-consuming part. If youre following along, youre welcome to format however you see fit. Finally, theres the Motley Fool website. It also breaks the cost of revenue down into the same categories. By default, it's set to "price" if you leave it blank. Do keep in mind that since we are rounding to millions of dollars, our subtotals might not be exactly the same as whats in the SEC filings. Unfortunately, what Excel and Google Sheets cant do as well is qualitative research. Free cash flow can be calculated in many different ways. After strong financial numbers in 2021, Tesla is in a much better financial position than it was just a few years prior. Column T (2019) is the first year of future cash flows. No guarantee of accuracy is made for any of the models or other information on this site. So, in accordance with the Lindy effect, I only forecasted Teslas earnings for thirteen years. For every dollar an investor had invested in Tesla, they'd generated over $1 of loss. For the best MarketWatch.com experience, please update to a modern browser. This is not a company I was terribly familiar with prior to creating this example. Today, the story is different. Admittedly, I did learn a good amount about Tesla that I did not previously know. These are costs that will remain level even as the number of units produced increases. Just want to use a stock analysis spreadsheet? Prior to 2022, Tesla's price-to-gross profit averaged more than 80.0X. If the company were to become insolvent, the debtors would get paid first. But, it will give us a good starting point. Morningstar is primarily known for its mutual fund research and analysis. Data reflects weightings calculated at the beginning of each month. Each section of the income statement will have to be judged independently. Thebid&askrefers to the price that an investor is willing to buy or sell a stock. With the cell still selected, open the "Data" tab, and then click "Stocks" in the "Data Types" section of the ribbon. The 6 columns represent the data - date, open, high, low, close and volume. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. A majority of this debt is due in the short-term, as Tesla had over $10 billion of accounts payable at the end of 2020almost a 40% increase from the year prior. Also, whats best for one investor might be useless to another. Admittedly, I didnt do enough scuttlebutt to fully stand behind my valuation of them. News Corp is a global, diversified media and information services company focused on creating and distributing authoritative and engaging content and other products and services. From what Ive seen, they avoid the political trappings that Yahoo! Note: Due to licensing restrictions, Canadian fundamental data cannot be downloaded from Barchart.com. Volume reflects consolidated markets. This information (as far as I know) has to be manually typed in. As far as other stock analysis websites go, it depends on what youre looking for. You can certainly enter it for every quarter. Under (over) val % = (Per share Current share price) 1. On most of my other spreadsheets, youll notice that I leave the variables (inputs) white, and format the field and row names, plus the formulas. There is no one way to go about this. For Tesla, I had to include an additional subtotal Total stockholders equity because the distinction was made on their balance sheet. This widget shows the number of times this symbol reached a new high price for specific periods, from the past 5-Days to the past 20-Years. Mutual Funds & ETFs: All of the mutual fund and ETF information contained in this display, with the exception of the current price and price history, was supplied by Lipper, A Refinitiv Company, subject to the following: Copyright Refinitiv. But, maybe they get purchased by another, more established, auto manufacturer. Contrary to popular belief, Elon Musk was not a founding member of Tesla. Community Tesla Vehicles Model 3 Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery However, you may find it useful to take notes on what you uncover as you analyze a given stock. If the company youre analyzing invests a lot in R&D, read this post:EFFECTIVE R&D MANAGEMENT 5 REAL-LIFE METRICS ANALYZED. Once we have the historical information we need, its time for the fun part. If you forecast that it will increase, then the likelihood of options getting exercised increases. Subtracting 1 gives us the percentage change. Create a list of the investments you want to track. Pages are initially sorted in a specific order (depending on the data presented). For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding. Doing so will allow you to save time when you want to re-calculate a stocks valuation. You are using an out of date browser. Format the field names and formulas if you wish. View, at a glance, the 52-Week High and Low for a symbol, along with the 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. What % do we think of first day owner reservations are CA vs the rest of the country? Enter your ticker symbol into the Fast Search field. Just ordered mine today. Another benefit of keeping notes on your stock analysis is that it will help you get back up to speed. So, dedicate some serious thought to the subject. International stock quotes are delayed as per exchange requirements. Which Tesla model years are capable of Autopilot? At the end of 2012, Tesla's stock price was $33.87 per share. Interest Rates. Read this post:CONVERSION FUNNEL ANALYSIS WHATS IT MEAN FOR INVESTORS? However, the company's trailing 12-month EPS was -$1.14. Since the stock split in 2000, Tesla shares have still been on a tear. The Discount rate will play a huge part in the NPV and, subsequently, Total value. It means that Tesla is serious about ramping production for the model 3 and it means as a CA non-owner that my delivery time is drawing nigh, maybe February (my estimator currently says Jan/Mar)! Sources: CoinDesk (Bitcoin), Kraken (all other cryptocurrencies), Calendars and Economy: 'Actual' numbers are added to the table after economic reports are released. The numbers next to the bid/ask are the size. Change value during the period between open outcry settle and the commencement of the next day's trading is calculated as the difference between the last trade and the prior day's settle. According to our research, TSLA stock is a outstanding long-term investment. Stocks: 15 20 minute delay (Cboe BZX is real-time), ET. Therefore, you should use a higher Discount rate. Anyhow, if youre curious, heres the Readers Digest version of how I arrived at the valuation I did: Since I assumed that Telsa was only going to last another thirteen years or so (remember the Lindy effect), I had them going through the entire business life cycle during that time. But, in amounts that are appropriate for their size. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our, Tesla Q3 FY2022 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For, Key Takeaways From Tesla's (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings, Tesla (TSLA) Blows Past Estimates, Posts Record Quarter, Tesla Q1 FY 2022 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For. Ultimately the number that you put in the cell N6 (infinite YoY growth) will do 90% of your valuation. You will see "N/L" in a downloaded column when this is the case. If youre looking for technical analysis or charting information, youll need another. In addition, Tesla reported over $5.7 billion of accrued short-term liabilities, $1.4 billion of deferred revenue, and $925 million of customer deposits for products not yet delivered. Sale Conditions for NYSE / NYSE Arca symbols: This tab is accessible for My Barchart and Barchart Premier Members. Barchart is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for individuals with disabilities. Why? Each projection on the ladder can be examined to determine if the price change to each trigger level will tend to confirm or reverse the price move. Source: Kantar Media. Three years later, shares had grown to over $200. By making our own subtotals and comparing them with those in the SEC filings. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance U.S. markets open in 1 hour 1 minute Nasdaq Futures Russell 2000 Futures (+0.37%) Crude Oil +0.24(+0.32%) Gold (+0.49%). Reference in spreadsheet to 8.6% Arizona sales tax is inaccurate. Income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements and key ratios. Frequently, youll see companies consistently spend the same percentage of revenue on Research & development. Standard Views found throughout the site include: Unique to Barchart.com, data tables contain an option that allows you to see more data for the symbol without leaving the page. Some of these projections will produce trigger prices so far removed from the price action that they can be ignored. Fb group page shows 1 over in NY getting invited to configure and 1 owner in GA. Though not always the case, Tesla's financial health has substantially improved over the past few years. So, in cell F4, enter the following: =C8-C9. Valuation spreadsheet using Tesla as an example. Here are the calculations for each: Gross margin % = Gross profit Total revenue. There is one more formula to enter for income statement analysis. Here are a few of the attributes you can pull out using the function: price: The price of the specific stock in real-time. When all of that is done, you should have something that looks kind of like this: The same principles apply for these two financial statements that did for the income statement. My Barchart and Barchart Premier members may download the data to a .csv file for use in 3rd party spreadsheet programs. Read Less. Formal equity research reports will often include some of the following: Most individual investors wont have to write a formalized stock analysis report. As I mentioned above, I only recommend forecasting the income statement out fifteen years or so. Acknowledgements Data from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA. Cargo Capacity 76 cu ft. Any spreadsheet software will work if you want to follow along. We're CA current owners but with a summer reservation so thinking we'll get our invite in February for delivery in March (typical CA pattern for end of quarter) figuring they are also following by earliest reservation date first. Copyright 2023 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. Think about EPS. The dividend payout ratio is the measure of dividends paid out to shareholders relative to the company's net income. Current LT debt, Current promissory notes, and Long-term debt were included in the Debt amount. **Green highlights the top performing ETF by % change in the past 100 days. Your discount rate should be higher than that. So, if the company youre analyzing is spending way more or less than the competition, consider if there might be a reverting-to-the-mean situation. As of April 2022, this second stock split in company history still needed to be approved by Tesla's board. Read this post:INVEST MONEY TO MAKE MONEY (SLOW?) It doesnt matter if they manufacture cars, are cannabis retailers, or make consumer goods. So, Ill make the text in B4:B10 bold and color the cells gray. Once you create a subtotal for your first historical quarter, you can copy that formula across for all quarters and years. As you address certain fields, youll have thoughts about others and youll have to circle around to adjust them. Open: Represents the opening price of the stock at a particular date. Content EOD data for Tesla's stock from 2010 to 2020. Barchart Premier Members may also download additional data using the "Historical Data" page, , where you can download Intraday, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or Quarterly data (going back to Jan. 1, 1980). Available for U.S. and Canadian equities, futures and forex symbols, the Latest Trades tab displays the last 50 trades for the symbol. Its important to include these amounts however because they will play an important part in valuation. At the end of 2020, Tesla's retained earnings was -$5.4 billion. How do we do that? Golden Butterfly Portfolio: What it Is, Allocations and Returns, 5 Support Videos for the Excel Stock Portfolio Spreadsheet [VIDEO], How Do I Calculate Dividends in Excel? Capital stock is the number of common and preferred shares that a company is authorized toissue, and is recorded in shareholders' equity. Any copying, republication or redistribution of Lipper content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Lipper. So, it seems to me that it would be prudent to save time where possible. Right-click on the chart to open the Interactive Chart menu. My Barchart members have the option to export the data to an Excel spreadsheet or as a .csv file. For some companies (Tesla) Shares outstanding shows a pretty consistent trend. In my spreadsheet, this is row 30 row 29. The same will hold true for almost all of the numbers reflected in the financial statements. Excel discounted cash flow (DCF) template As of Dec. 31, 2021, Tesla reported total liabilities of $30.5 billion. Type a symbol or company name. The four invites in the spreadsheet today (1-4-2018) were non-CA. This data feed is available via Nasdaq Data Link APIs; to learn more about subscribing, visitNasdaq Data Link's products page. Automotive Leasing Segment 5. Operating margin % = Operating income Total revenue. This free template is specifically designed for tracking food stock. Make a subtotal for Total revenue (if necessary), Total COR (also if necessary), Gross profit, Total operating expenses, Operating income, Pretax income, Net income, and EPS. It makes it easier to find errors and check your totals. Data Link's cloud-based technology platform allows you to search, discover and access data and analytics for seamless integration via cloud APIs. Pivot points are used to identify intraday support, resistance and target levels. Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. It is Revenue Y/Y (year over year). By December 2017, shares had climbed to around $340. Finance falls into. In my spreadsheet, this is row 35 row 24. Tesla shares dipped below $100 in Q1 2020 before topping $1,200 per share around 18 months later. Potentially, you could make a lot of money. This workbook is based on Martin Shkrelis Finance Lessons on YouTube. You can use the bid-ask spread to determine whether to place a market orderorlimit orderwhen trading, helping you to optimize your price and have a successful order execution. Column BZ (room for terminal values) is the last. On the asset side, Tesla was holding less than $18 billion of cash at the end of 2021. I could be convinced that this should be a bit higher. Most recently, Tesla's operations have turned positive, allowing the company to flip its retained earnings positive. Exchange Rates. 2023 Barchart.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Gold prices end at lowest in over a week as dollar strengthens ahead of Fed decision Wednesday. Ill no longer be responding to Requests for access.. Shares outstanding and accompanying fields, Analyzing stocks in Excel (or Google Sheets), A thorough and complete stock valuation spreadsheet, PROFIT MARGIN ANALYSIS OF STOCKS GROSS, OPERATING, & NET, THE EFFECTS OF LEVERAGE, EFFECTIVE R&D MANAGEMENT 5 REAL-LIFE METRICS ANALYZED, Speaking of leverage (of the financial variety), I also wrote a post on the subject on SpreadsheetsForBusiness.com, I also wrote on the subjects of NPV and discount rates on SpreadsheetsForBusiness.com, spreadsheets make calculating financial ratios easy, Determining if senior management has the right qualifications, Determining the companys strategy in light of its growth stage. Welcome to Tesla Motors Club Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More. Net income is the basis for determining the net present value (NPV) of this company. I suggest you enter every line item from your companys SEC filings. Download it into Excel and tweak it as you see fit. Site visitors (not logged into the site) can view the last three months of data, while logged in members can view and download end-of-day price history for up to two years prior to today's date. Also, Ill give an honorable mention the Yahoo! Others, such as crossovers of a short-term and a long-term moving average, are interpreted as a reversal of the current signal. In 2020, Tesla performed its first stock split; before its five-for-one stock split that year, single shares had topped $500. Thats a whole discussion in and of itself. A good stock screener can actually do a lot of your financial ratio analysis for you too. Roll the dice, take your chances. These figures correspond to the information presents on the Trader's Cheat Sheet page. Am I missing a spot to mention if your preference is AWD or not? Leave Discount rate (F2) blank for the time being. So, we will be copying amounts directly from the companys SEC filings. On my sister site, SpreadsheetsForBusiness.com, I wrote a post on operational leverage. low: The current or chosen day's low price. At one time I had my securities license (Series 7) and Health and Life insurance licenses. Lipper shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Keep in mind that as a company matures, cash balances grow, and investment opportunities dry up. Not surprisingly, they are among those that are cut first when times get tough. Maybe a typo on your part but only black interior for First LR production. After historically investing in heavy machinery, manufacturing space, and production efficiency, Tesla famously failed to incur a profit for years.