Nov. 8, 2022. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. J.D. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Adjusted Poll Average. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Second, he has to bring the Republican coalition together, which would require political skill that I dont know that he possesses. NYT Graphics Maggie Astor But this work can get done during the campaign. Maggie Astor Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Despite a difficult environment, Gov. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. Nate Cohn The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. 2024 Senate races. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Current Senate Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Independent variables were the Democratic margin in the current or most recent presidential election in the state, incumbency status (coded as +1 for Democratic incumbent, 0 for open seats, and -1 for Republican incumbents), and election type (-1 for Republican midterm, 0 for presidential, and +1 for Democratic midterm). Senate Projection. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues RCP House Map Race Changes. The party that wins two of the contact info. NYT Graphics Continue with Recommended Cookies. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. Arizona Winner: Mark Kelly (D) . These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. Ohio. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. That could all change Tuesday. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? John Fetterman. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. , Gov. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Now were talking about expansion. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. The results in Table 2 show that the 3 variable model was quite accurate, explaining 84% of the variance in the outcomes of individual Senate contests. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillips. Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. This is who we think will win. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Read more , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. You deserve to hear our thinking. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. that guide every prediction he makes. Alicia Parlapiano In order to estimate the contributions of state partisanship, incumbency, and election timing to the outcomes of Senate elections between 2012 and 2020, I conducted a multiple regression analysis with the Democratic candidates margin as the dependent variable. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. It remains to be seen whether any of the current crop of GOP candidates, many of whom are running as staunch Trump loyalists and some of whom have endorsed the Big Lie of the stolen 2020 election, will suffer a similar fate. 1.2 Close races. (Disclosure: hes a friend.) Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. We also have a Live Forecast for the House. Dont punish people for it. Source: Data compiled by author. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Lazaro Gamio Alicia Parlapiano With the 2022 midterms just hours away, Senate races in the countrys battleground states look closer than ever. Click here! I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. . GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. However, with the current breakdown of the Democratic Party, that is vested in the hands of the Democrat senator from West Virginia Joe Manchin. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. 2 Lauren Leatherby However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. Hi there. Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate. As of now, its considered a toss Follow the latest election results here , Ga. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short House George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Clickme! The results are displayed in Table 2. Maggie Astor Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? People are ready to fight. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. 2 References. Ron DeSantis tends to fare better against President Biden among college-educated Whites than Donald Trump does. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. Read more Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. Democrats need to go on offense on these issues. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Follow along after polls close. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Nate Cohn Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Ruth Igielnik Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. Albert Sun Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Maggie Astor , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. The forecast will shift to account for which party is consistently doing better across the country compared to our projections, and calculate the chance both have of winning the majority. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Looking for the national forecast? *. We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. *, Maine This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. Three independent candidates Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) are classified as Democrats. 2 References. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. The tables below show the closest races, and the number of races leaning toward either party, in our estimates. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. I think its still immature. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. What we expect this year Alicia Parlapiano Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Kennedy Elliott Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire.