During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Conditions still don't look favorable but that could change. West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. WED NIGHT Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. This is not believable. 48. Famously surfed by Duke Kahanamoku in 1915 these sunshine beaches hold numerous classic set-ups. Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14). You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. On Wed AM (4/19) southwest winds were 45-50 kts starting to track northeast with seas 39 ft at 59.5S 153.75W aimed northeast. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35+ kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. The south swell will slowly ease Sunday the 8th and into the workweek. Water temps were running 60-62 in much of SD and OC yesterday. In the evening south winds to be lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 145W aimed northeast. 32. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Farms. Starting Wed (3/2) the jet is to start splitting on the dateline with 160 kt winds reaching that point, then far weaker east of there. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. Gulf Gale Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022. afternoon. Friday the 5th into Saturday the 6th remains on track to see decent sized southern hemi ground swell from this system that has stayed the course for more than a week on the models, peaking off Antarctica yesterday as it traveled north on an ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): Size is coming in at chest high for most south facing breaks and head high at times at standouts by Saturday the 6th (chest max Friday the 5th with rare pluses), angled from 210 with periods 16-18 seconds. N wind 15 to 20 kt. You can also get the latest temperature, weather and wind observations from actual weather stations under the live weather section. Summer - Head high or better. In the evening west winds were 45 kts over a solid area just west of North Japan and the South Kuril Islands with 39 ft seas at 41.25N 157.5E aimed east. 6 ft. THU You are not a drop in the ocean. SUN NIGHT SW wind 5 to 15 kt. We provide 7-day Wind, Wave and Weather Forecasts to help sailors with their passage planning and weather routing. Swell Direction:292-295 degrees. Protected breaks were near chest high and fairly clean but with some light texture on it and closed out and soft. Thursday the 4th looks about waist high everywhere, but with NW ground swell filling in, running up to chest high later in the day at west facing spots. Copyright Nathan Cool | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | PV: 8.1.18. Small North Gulf Gale This is increasing the onshore flow, and we continue to have a strong thermal inversion over SoCal. W swell 10 to 12 ft at THU The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has restarted. Swell NW 6 ft. Winds As southern hemisphere ground swell lingers from the most recent Antarctic swell, NW ground swell is already starting to fill in from that system that, although initially sitting just 1,100 nautical miles from SoCal, will dive south into SoCal as a cut-off low shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That low is now diving south and starting to cut off from the jetstream, visible from space this morning on NOAA satellite (image from NOAA GOES): Circled in red we can see that cut-off low, starved of moisture, but with enough being drawn into it to bring rain to SoCal this week. Unfortunately again, most mornings do look to start out with some onshore southerly wind. showers early in the morning. NW wind 5 ktveering to E after midnight. veering to W in the eveningbacking to SW after midnight. Friday the 5th is expected to run chest high at most breaks from a mix of NW and SW ground swells. The outlook is turning optimistic. BUOY ROUNDUP Which could be a fun morning may turn out a bit choppy. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. The main story for most of the region will be the medium to locally good-sized run of Southern Hemisphere swell topping out this weekend. The morning is looking fairly light with just a touch of south wind, followed by a light onshore wind in the afternoon. W wind 5 ktbacking to SW in the afternoon, then . Pacific Decadal Oscillation In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Within 5 nm of Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. SB Harbor reported 57 this morning. Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) showers and steep seas will continue into Tuesday, along with Wednesday the 3rd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ftbuilding to 4 to 6 ft after There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Pacific-Ocean region. W wind 5 kt. And southern hemisphere ground swell is due Friday into the coming weekend. WED NIGHT Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). As for swell, this low has stayed the course with last week's weather models looking nearly identical to today's, keeping the low meandering about SoCal for a few days, kicking up wind swell into the mix (model by NOAA MAG): But there has been some improvement in the forecast as the ground swell portion of the approaching swell will outdo wind swell, with wind swell being about 30-40% in the mix (ground swell 60-70%). The winds are looking similar to Saturday though, with more south wind expected for the morning. but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Swell Direction: 212 moving to 202 degrees and mostly shadowed by Tahiti, North CA: Swell arriving early Fri (5/5) with period 18 secs early building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs at sunset (3.0-3.5 ft). W wind 5 kt. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. In the evening south winds to build to 50 kts with seas 38 ft at 54.75S 137.5W aimed north-northeast. NW ground swell increases Monday with a mix of wind swell, lasting for a couple days. TUE But we also have some very late season WNW groundswell mixing in during the same timeframe, and wintertime spots could get pretty fun. midnight. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks smaller, about waist high everywhere. Gales associated with this system are shown. Check in on the forecast update: Southwest Pacific . The East Shore was chest high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. South Central Pacific Gale Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW wind 5 to 15 ktrising to 15 to 20 kt late Attelage de la Gazelle. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +2.41 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. Mostly the same story as of late. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Pacific-Ocean Cloud Cover. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. Overview By browsing Magicseaweed, you agree to our use of cookies. W wind 5 ktbacking to SW after midnight. Wind PACIFIC OVERVIEW Swell is pushing towards California. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: Map overlays available for display: Pacific-Ocean Pressure, Wind. Ian - the nation's third most expensive weather disaster on record - is among 29 hurricanes, including 13 major hurricanes, churned out by the Atlantic from 2020 to 2022, or roughly 30% more than the average for a typical three-year span. Jetstream patterns make surf forecasts more predictable, so even though that's a 210-hour model, confidence is fairly high that we'll see something out of it. Today's temps are rising again at +2.478 after dropping to +2.145 (4/25) having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. I would still recommend giving it a look this morning with all the swell in the water. Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm In the evening south winds built to 45 kts over a small area lifting fast north with seas 37 ft at 40.75S 162W aimed north. afternoon. Churches & Cathedrals. Slight chance of showers. Also on Mon PM (2/22) a short lived tiny fetch of north winds produced 20 ft seas 650 nmiles north of Hawaii at 35.5N 159W aimed south. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. waves 2 ft or less. PZZ300-290400. This pattern isn't out of the realm of possibility by any means and holds medium to high potential; however, that is a 192-hour model so I need a few more days to see how this plays out. On Sat AM (4/29) south winds consolidated at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39.5S 147W aimed northeast. The 28 deg isotherm line was stalled at 159W today. More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry'). The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up The trend of late has been towards positive readings. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. Subsurface Waters Temps Run in that direction. May is one of the most active times of year for Southern Hemisphere swells, and this week is showing us just that. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Building 3205 This model suggests a transition to El Nino. the week. NW wind swell is becoming possible for the 10th-11th. For the long range, guidance is advertising a gale low emerging over the far northwest Pacific and tracking east-southeast Friday into the weekend. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and lined up when they came but generally weak with light offshore wind. Tropical Update During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. less. On Sunday (4/30) the jetstream was split over the South Pacific with most energy tracking east over the 55S latitude line under New Zealand falling to 64S over the Southeast Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. The 30 day average was falling some at +9.31 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 100W. Here's the sat-shot from above to save you from scrolling (image from NOAA GOES): This will bring a period of cool, showery weather Monday the 1st through Thursday the 4th, with most of the precip likely Wednesday night into Thursday. See it Here this system was gone after that. Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. Conditions still dont look favorable but that could change. Level up to a Premium Membership to unlock 16-day forecasts and other useful forecasting tools. A small started developing over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed AM (4/26) producing 35-40 kt west winds with seas building to 24 ft at 48N 166.75W aimed east. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/29) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. Today (Sunday the 30th) we have a light to moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. No tropical systems of interest are forecast. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. Swell fading on Fri (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and lifting north with seas 31 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. Detailed Surf Reports, 16-day Surf Forecasts, Surf Photos, Live Winds, Tides and Weather | Swellnet Premium ad-free surfcams, dawn surf reports, forecaster notes, long range surf forecasts. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status in the core of the KWGA on 2/26 while expanding in coverage to strong or more status holding through the end of the model run on 3/3. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) Just a little bit of south swell should be in the water by then. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42.5N 151.25W aimed east. Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). Summer - Head high or better. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. Our Weather Data A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. 117-128 m (384-420 ft) Website. Friday should then be partly sunny as weak high pressure pushes into SoCal, increasing beach max temps to the low 60s. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Swell NW 4 to 5 ft. PZZ370-011600 Surf Forecast: It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. These forecasts are prepared by the Ocean Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Honolulu Forecast Office, Juneau Forecast Office, Anchorage Forecast Office, and Fairbanks Forecast Office. 1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now.